TXP Tech Exposures
The TXP model tracks Tech Sector exposure among general equity funds. Exposures are measured in a "moving beta" designed to capture Tech sensitivity exclusive of overall "everything else" sensitivity. Each component fund's Tech exposure history is graded for tactical timing relative to the ebbs and flows of Tech sector returns.
Fund-by-fund current sector exposures are then analyzed relative to fund-by-fund tactical timing. This relative analysis is updated weekly, showing who's more bullish or bearish on the sector: the better timers or lesser timers? When the better timers are more bullish, the TXP Slope is positive.
Here is a five-year graph of the TXP Slope. When the series dropped negative in February 2004, it signaled the onset of over a year's weakness. That weakness continued into spring of 2005. Now the Slope has crossed positive again. This up-crossing is running with the market trend (unlike 2001), and so seems more likely to have nearer-term implication.
addition to the Slope, the TXP analysis also includes average exposures
for positive timers, average for negative timers, and overall average Tech
exposure. TXP is updated weekly on Fridays. Contact us to ask
about recent values, or to order weekly
service. Call (603) 643-6430, or use the forms at the Contact or Models