You acknowledge prices fluctuate randomly. How can you also claim to predict market direction?
We don't "predict" anything (except that prevailing dynamics will persist until they change). Random fluctuations are trendy because they are sometimes random with positive mean (generating uptrend) and sometimes random with negative mean (downtrend). Probable trend emerges from a probable market state.
Your "market states strategies seem to change frequently (especially "a-la-carte" states), indicating portfolio change. Isnt it costly to keep changing position?
Yes. Intensive management is costly. But market conditions are non-stationary, and in our view adjusting to changing realities is less risky and arrives at a positive net result. The a-la-carte states are always very current and in many portfolios are best used as "overlay" tactical enhancement.
Performance reported for some of your tactical tools is outstanding. How reliable are those numbers?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data shown are analytically compiled. We take great care in seeking statistical consistency of results, but the future is not known.
Several tactical tools have a portfolio most often in neutral. Doesn't this risk being left out in a big bull market?
"Neutral" tactical position means reverting to long term core exposure, according to portfolio strategy and policy. Our tactical examples use "cash" as neutral, with deviations long and short. For most actual portfolios, "neutral" position is far from disinvested.
For highly directional strategies, on the other hand, "neutral" can literally mean disinvested. Here it's critical to never be very wrong, which means better to miss-out than to miss-in. So yes, being left out is possible. Avoiding loss is hard enough when all conditions are demonstrably favorable; taking positions with known adverse factors is strictly gambling.
Why should I care about moving beta?
Market relationships are never static, so static risk metrics are misleading. Ever-changing portfolio composition means risk is changing too. To manage risk, you must measure risk. If risk is variable, you need a variable measure.
If I request Analytix information, will my subscription end up on an e-mail spam list?
Never. We never sell, rent, swap or share any user-specific information. If you wish, we will send occasional email messages from alerting you to new Analytix features or services.
Why all the emphasis on statistical significance?
Many alleged market relationships turn out to be spurious. Too many strategies rely on plausible but anecdotal inference. Significance testing forces objectivity and minimizes the chance of relying on transient or unreliable relationships. Only Sig testing answers "Do we know enough to rely on this data?"
What about taxes? Isnt it tax-inefficient to rely on short-horizon lookaheads?
First priority is to earn gains and avoid losses. Time horizons are driven by market behavior, not the tax code and not our wishes. All inference begins to age (and dissipate) immediately. Holding securities beyond a confident inference horizon incurs untenable risk.
Do you manage any portfolios?
No. We provide data and analysis to enhance portfolio strategies. Portfolio management is a separate skill and a separate business. We do data.
Do you provide any services for individual investors?
Customized modeling and data services are offered specifically for market professionals. Core metrics and site-loaded models are also available to other competent investors by subscription.
Can I cancel a subscription?
Absolutely. You may cancel for any reason, or for no reason. If you are not 100% satisfied, we will cancel. A canceled subscription will terminate at the end of the next calendar quarter following cancellation notice (unless expiring sooner).